What are the effects of rent control policies on housing market dynamics and tenant stability?

Rent Control Policies Yield Mixed Results

Rent control policies yield mixed effects on housing market dynamics and tenant stability. In regulated markets, studies report rent declines ranging from 4% to 47% in controlled units while some analyses note rent increases in uncontrolled or post‐decontrol sectors. In one San Francisco study, rents rose concurrently with a 15% reduction in housing supply and a 20% drop in tenant mobility. Other research documents tenants staying an extra six years under tighter regulation, although reports of 83–127% higher eviction filings suggest displacement risks in certain settings.

Abstract

Separate analyses show shifts in market composition. For example, one study cited annual rent subsidies of about US$2440 (roughly 27% of income), and another observed reduced racial disparities accompanied by increased minority presence. These findings, based on quasi‐experimental and econometric approaches across diverse jurisdictions, indicate that the impacts of rent control vary with policy design and local market conditions.

Methods

We analyzed 40 sources from an initial pool of 989, using 8 screening criteria. Each paper was reviewed for 5 key aspects that mattered most to the research question.

• Intervention Type: Focus on rent control policies.
• Outcome Measures: Affecting housing market outcomes or tenant stability outcomes.
• Study Design: Methods like randomized controlled trials or quasi-experimental designs were prioritized.
• Geographic Context: Urban or metropolitan housing markets considered.
• Public/Social Housing Focus: Studies focused beyond the public housing without rent control components.

Papers included for extraction: 40.

Results

Across 40 studies of rent control policies, the following patterns were observed:

Primary Outcomes Measured:

• Rental prices: Measured in 25 studies.
• Housing supply: Measured in 20 studies.
• Tenant stability: Measured in 16 studies.
• Maintenance: Measured in 9 studies.
• Evictions: Measured in 3 studies.

Patterns in Effects

Effects on Housing Market Dynamics

• Decrease in rents: Reported in 11 studies.
• Increase in rents: Reported in 10 studies.
• Decrease in housing supply: Found in 4 studies.
• Increase in evictions: Found in 3 studies.

Effects on Tenant Stability

• Increase in tenant stability: Found in 2 studies.
• Statistical significance: Most common outcomes in rents, supply, and tenant stability were observed.

Data Extraction

Study Design Type:

• Quasi-experimental (e.g., regression discontinuity, difference-in-differences).

Geographic Setting:

• Studies conducted primarily in:
  • San Francisco, USA;
  • Catalonia, Spain;
  • Germany;
  • Denmark;
  • New York City, USA.

Rent Control Policy Details:

• Various types of rent control policies analyzed, ranging from first-generation to second-generation.

References

• Jofre-Monseny, J., et al. (2023). Effectiveness and supply effects of high-coverage rent control policies. Regional Science and Urban Economics.
• Diamond, R., et al. (2019). The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco. The American Economic Review.
• Mense, A., et al. (2017). Empirics on the causal effects of rent control in Germany.