Effects of Rent Control on Housing Dynamics (public)

What are the effects of rent control policies on housing market dynamics and tenant stability?

Rent control policies yield mixed results, decreasing rents in controlled units by 4-47% and extending tenant stays by up to six years, while simultaneously reducing housing supply and increasing eviction filings, with effects varying by policy design and local market conditions.

Abstract

Rent control policies yield mixed effects on housing market dynamics and tenant stability. In regulated markets, studies report rent declines ranging from 4% to 47% in controlled units while some analyses note rent increases in uncontrolled or post‐decontrol sectors. In one San Francisco study, rents rose concurrently with a 15% reduction in housing supply and a 20% drop in tenant mobility. Other research documents tenants staying an extra six years under tighter regulation, although reports of 83–127% higher eviction filings suggest displacement risks in certain settings.

Methods

We analyzed 40 sources from an initial pool of 989, using 8 screening criteria. Each paper was reviewed for 5 key aspects that mattered most to the research question.

Papers identified with Elicit search

• n = 989

Papers screened using:

• Intervention Type, Outcome Measures, Study Design, Geographic Context, Public/Social Housing Focus, Housing Voucher/Assistance Focus, Empirical Data, Comparison Groups
• n = 989

Papers screened out

• n = 949

Papers included for extraction

• n = 40

Paper search

Using your research question "What are the effects of rent control policies on housing market dynamics and tenant stability?", we searched across over 126 million academic papers from the Semantic Scholar corpus. We retrieved the 989 papers most relevant to the query.

Screening

We screened in sources based on their abstracts that met these criteria:

• Intervention Type: Does this study examine rent control, rent stabilization, or rent regulation policies?
• Outcome Measures: Does this study measure at least one of the following: housing market outcomes (rental supply, housing prices, construction rates, property maintenance, market competition) OR tenant stability outcomes (residential mobility, displacement rates, tenure length, eviction rates, housing security)?
• Study Design: Is this study one of the following: randomized controlled trial, quasi-experimental design, natural experiment, longitudinal study, cross-sectional study with comparison groups, systematic review, or meta-analysis?
• Geographic Context: Was this study conducted in urban or metropolitan areas with rental housing markets?
• Public/Social Housing Focus: Is this study NOT focused solely on public housing or social housing programs without rent control components?
• Housing Voucher/Assistance Focus: Is this study NOT examining only housing voucher or rental assistance programs without rent regulation?
• Empirical Data: Is this study NOT purely theoretical or modeling without empirical data?
• Comparison Groups: Is this study NOT a case study or descriptive study without comparison groups or control conditions?

We considered all screening questions together and made a holistic judgement about whether to screen in each paper.

Data extraction

We asked a large language model to extract each data column below from each paper. We gave the model the extraction instructions shown below for each column.

Study Design Type

• Identify the primary research design used in the study.

Geographic Setting and Context

• Extract the specific geographic location(s) where the study was conducted. Include country, city/metropolitan area, specific neighborhoods or regions (if applicable).

Rent Control Policy Details

• Extract comprehensive details about the rent control policy, including year of policy implementation, specific type of rent control, key policy mechanisms, and scope of application.

Policy Impact Outcomes

• Identify and extract the specific outcomes measured related to rent control policy, including rental prices (regulated and unregulated sectors), housing supply, land values, maintenance investments, tenant stability, demolition rates, and housing market dynamics.

Key Quantitative Findings

• Extract the primary quantitative results, focusing on magnitude of effects, statistical significance, confidence intervals or standard errors, and directional impact of rent control policy.

Results

Characteristics of Included Studies

Across 40 studies of rent control policies, the following patterns were observed:

• Primary Outcomes Measured: Rental prices, housing supply, tenant stability, maintenance.
• Rent Control Policy Type: First-generation rent control, second-generation rent control, etc.
• Methodology: Quasi-experimental methods, econometric methods, empirical analysis.

Effects

Effects on Housing Market Dynamics

Effects on Tenant Stability and Demographics

Conclusion

Raising revenue for rental subsidies through rent control appears to be regressive, as corporations can evade the tax burden more easily.

References

• Diamond et al., 2019
• Jofre-Monseny et al., 2023
• Munch & Svarer